AGP Executive Report

Banking & Markets: The Bank of Canada says the financial system has held up through global shocks, but warns vulnerabilities are rising—especially the risk of a sharp asset-price correction tied to AI-heavy stock concentration and hedge-fund basis trades. Households & Credit: The central bank also flags that households may be less able to absorb shocks, with mortgage renewals potentially rising as bond yields move higher. Energy Trade: Canada signed a major LNG supply deal with Germany—1 million tonnes annually from B.C.’s Ksi Lisims project for up to 20 years—though regulatory and environmental hurdles remain. Defence Procurement: Prime Minister Mark Carney says Canada is negotiating to buy Saab’s GlobalEye airborne early warning aircraft, aiming to boost Arctic detection and support Canadian industrial work with Bombardier. Retail & Consumer: Tim Hortons plans 80 new Canadian locations in 2026 and 400 renovations, with owners investing $270M plus $130M from the company. Tech & Business Visibility: WSI says SMBs can get missed by AI search unless websites are technically structured and machine-readable. Real Estate: Property auctions are gaining traction for price discovery in a tougher market, with one B.C. ranch sale showing bids can beat appraisals.

Natural Gas Royalties Fight: B.C.’s NDP is facing sharp pushback from the natural gas sector over proposed royalty hikes starting Jan. 1, with critics warning higher rates could deter investment and raise LNG costs. Canada–India Trade Push: Trade talks with India are aimed at wrapping up CEPA by year-end, with both sides targeting $50B in bilateral trade by 2030 as ministers and pension funds meet in Toronto. LNG Deal With Germany: Canada has struck a supply agreement to send 1 million tonnes of LNG annually to Germany from the Ksi Lisims project, with first shipments expected in the early 2030s. Defence Procurement Shift: Prime Minister Mark Carney says Ottawa will build Canadian defence “champions” through a new strategic framework, while Canada chooses Saab’s GlobalEye over U.S. options for airborne early warning. Small Business Pressure in B.C.: A CFIB report says B.C. small businesses are at a tax disadvantage as other provinces cut rates or raise deductions, urging B.C. to move its small business tax rate to zero by 2030. Markets & Energy Costs: GasBuddy says easing oil prices could bring relief at the pump, after weeks of volatility tied to Middle East tensions.

Canada–U.S. trade talks sidelining Canada: The U.S. kicked off USMCA review talks with Mexico without Canada, while U.S. officials signalled tariffs will stay in place, raising uncertainty for Canadian exporters. Defence procurement shift: Prime Minister Mark Carney says Canada will buy Sweden’s Saab GlobalEye early-warning aircraft to reduce reliance on U.S. defence suppliers, alongside broader moves to deepen Europe ties. Energy deal with Germany: Canada is set to announce a major LNG supply agreement with Germany (via the Ksi Lisims project and SEFE), aiming to diversify Europe-bound exports. Aluminium squeeze: Reuters reports Canada is redirecting more aluminium to Europe as Iran-war shipping disruptions tighten global supply and push premiums to extreme levels. Commercial real estate to housing: Avison Young says more than 10 million sq ft of Canadian office space has been converted or earmarked for redevelopment, adding housing and revitalizing cores. Household pressure on travel: TD survey finds 35% of Canadians plan to spend less this summer, with fuel and airfare costs driving cuts. Airport enforcement crisis: A W5 investigation highlights gaps in airport security enforcement, with no single agency owning routine employee exit checks. Uranium mining controversy: A Colorado uranium firm’s plan to mine in New Mexico includes groundwater pumping and discharge, reigniting environmental and community concerns.

Transatlantic Connectivity: WestJet launched the first direct Cardiff-to-Toronto flight in nearly 20 years, landing at Cardiff Airport with four weekly trips using Boeing 737-8 MAX aircraft—an instant boost for Wales-Canada business links. Trade Push: India and Canada are in “mission mode” to reset ties, with Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal backing a goal to triple bilateral trade to US$50B by 2030, alongside talks aimed at finishing a CEPA-style free trade deal by year-end. Policy Pressure: Canada’s online safety bill (C-22) faces fresh pushback from Apple and Google, who want judicial oversight to prevent secret orders that could undermine encryption. Energy Deal Watch: Canada is set to sign an LNG supply agreement with Germany’s SEFE for up to 1 million metric tons a year from the Ksi Lisims project in B.C. Food Insecurity: New StatsCan data shows food insecurity at crisis levels, with 24% of Canadians in food-insecure households.

Canada–India Trade Push: Piyush Goyal told Toronto business leaders that “diversity” and trust are driving momentum toward a CEPA, with both sides aiming to triple trade to $50B by 2030 and push toward a year-end deal. US Travel Headwind: New reporting highlights why Canadians are still avoiding the U.S.—with one Vancouver lawyer calling recent U.S. treatment “insulting”—as Canadian spending and visits keep sliding. Bank of Canada Watch: The central bank warns the labour market is shifting into a “low-hire, low-fire” pattern, making rate decisions harder. Tech for Public Safety: Ericsson is partnering with the federal government on AWIN, a 5G-enabled network for defence and first responders. Energy & Industry Moves: Kruger Nonwovens is ordering a Wetlace line from ANDRITZ for plastic-free wipes in Quebec; Swordfish Energy signed a 35MW clean power deal for sustainable aviation fuel. Tourism & Culture: Florida’s first-quarter visitor numbers show fewer Canadians, while Destination Canada’s business-events study and the Canada Strong Pass return for summer.

Alberta Separation Backlash: Prime Minister Mark Carney says Alberta’s Oct. referendum is a “dangerous bluff” and “not helpful,” comparing it to Brexit and arguing it wasn’t on the ballot. Western Politics: The dispute hangs over this week’s premiers’ meeting in Kananaskis, with B.C. Premier David Eby calling the timing reckless. Canada–India Trade Reset: In Ottawa, India’s Piyush Goyal met Carney and pushed for early CEPA progress, calling it a “game changer” and aiming to triple trade by 2030. Housing & Power: Toronto’s tenant movement is escalating, with a new citywide Toronto Tenant Union formed to organize collective action against landlords. Public Safety & Crime: Peel police announced 17 arrests tied to an international extortion network targeting South Asian businesses, with charges including firearms and arson. Business Mood: CFIB reports a sharp drop in small-business long-term optimism in May, with fuel costs and weak demand leading worries. Energy Transition (B.C.): A Surrey company is building a mega-factory to repurpose used EV batteries into stationary storage. Tech & Society: Pope Leo XIV’s first encyclical urges AI to be “disarmed,” emphasizing human dignity and workers’ rights.

Housing Deal Pressure in B.C.: B.C. housing groups are urging Minister Christine Boyle to stop delaying Ottawa’s housing assistance terms, warning buyers are being disadvantaged while Ontario’s deal is already cutting taxes and development charges enough to save up to $200,000 in some markets. Public Safety & Crime: Peel Police say they’ve dismantled an international extortion ring tied to “For Brothers,” charging 17 non-Canadians (mostly Indian-origin) after alleged shootings and arson targeting South Asian businesses across Peel and links to California. Alberta Separation Talk: Prime Minister Mark Carney calls Alberta’s October non-binding independence vote a “dangerous bluff,” arguing it’s not helpful and pointing to polling showing most Albertans would vote to stay. Labour & Immigration: Ottawa’s In-Canada Workers Program aims to speed up permanent residence for up to 33,000 seasonal workers in rural Atlantic communities facing shortages. Tech, Policy & Society: A new poll finds 66% of Canadians think gambling harms society, while Tim Hortons says it’s hiring 10,000 locally and Canada’s CSIS is recruiting post-secondary students for roles paying up to $34.32/hour. Business & Culture: Costco recalls Kirkland Signature women’s multivitamins over possible metal fragments; and Drake’s three-album release claims Billboard’s top three spots.

Aviation Safety Warning: The NTSB says even barely visible “grain-sized” ice on a wing can cut lift enough to stop takeoffs—an issue business aviation may be less prepared for than airlines. Bombardier Turnaround: Bombardier reported Q1 results with a $20.3B backlog, $1.6B revenue and $60M free cash flow, highlighting how its six-year recovery was built on divestments, focus and culture change. Trade Talks Heat Up: India’s Piyush Goyal is in Canada this week to push CEPA talks with Mark Carney and industry leaders, as Ottawa courts investment and deeper economic ties. Tech Policy Clash: Google warns Canada’s lawful-access bill could create a “surveillance infrastructure” that weakens cybersecurity and privacy. Sports & Business Spotlight: In Montreal, F1’s Canadian GP ended with George Russell’s DNF and Kimi Antonelli’s win, while Tim Hortons plans $400M in new openings and renovations as Dunkin prepares to return. Crime & Enforcement: Nigeria police say they seized 425 bags of “Canadian Loud” in Lagos, tied to a suspected drug syndicate.

Western Premiers Summit: Western premiers are heading to Alberta’s Kananaskis meeting Monday–Tuesday to talk trade, energy security and defence—while the host province’s separatism referendum looms large after Danielle Smith unveiled an Oct. 19 vote on staying in Canada or pursuing separation. Insurance Leadership: Saskatchewan’s SGI says President and CEO Penny McCune will retire this fall after more than 40 years at the company. Auto Marketing Shake-up: Ford’s chief marketing officer Lisa Materazzo is stepping down June 1, with “Ready Set Ford” now entering a new leadership phase. Sports & Culture: Gilles Villeneuve’s 1982 F1 helmet sold for a record US$1.25M; in hockey, the Canadiens push for a better home-ice start in Game 3 after splitting the first two with Carolina. World Cup Build-out: Kamloops will host FIFA watch parties at Riverside Park during Canada’s 2026 tour, with games shown on a large LED screen. Tech/Deals: Canadian private equity firm Northleaf is reportedly eyeing KCom in a cut-price broadband sale process.

Arctic Pollution Warning: A new Yukon study says thawing permafrost is exposing ancient bedrock and sending toxic metals into northern rivers—turning once-clear streams orange and, in some cases, as acidic as contaminated mining sites. Correctional Safety: Correctional officers’ union leaders say violence, contraband, and weapons seizures are rising across federal prisons, pointing to recent injuries at Springhill. Energy & Unity Politics: Alberta Premier Danielle Smith’s separation referendum question is drawing anger from both federalists and separatists, with legal and investment concerns growing. Border & Rights: Canada is reportedly rejecting some U.S.-based asylum seekers at the border and handing them to ICE, raising alarm over people caught between asylum systems. Sports: The Canadiens’ scoring woes continued as they lost to the Hurricanes in overtime to tie the Eastern final 1-1, with Game 3 returning to Montreal Monday. Business & Jobs: Industry minister Mélanie Joly says the federal government’s goal is to bring back 1,000 Algoma Steel jobs after layoffs, tying it to Tenaris’s $306M expansion.

Canada–India Trade Push: Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal is heading to Canada May 25–27 with a 150-member business delegation to restart free-trade talks and CEPA momentum, including meetings with Mark Carney and Canada’s “Maple 8” pension funds, as both sides target big trade growth and deeper critical-minerals and energy cooperation. Drone Industry Race: The U.S. Defense Department’s Drone Dominance Program has qualified 48 companies for Gauntlet 2 trials, aiming to scale mass FPV drone production without Chinese parts. Ebola Screening Tightens in the U.S.: The WHO raised DRC Ebola risk to “very high,” and the U.S. expanded airport screening to include Atlanta’s Hartsfield-Jackson. Canadian Business on the Ground: Becker Mining Systems is breaking ground on a bigger Sudbury-area facility tied to the critical-minerals push. Sports & Culture: Wheelchair rugby Canada named a BC player to Team Canada for the June Canada Cup, while Triumph kicks off its 50th anniversary tour with a stop at Darien Lake.

Economy Watch: The OECD says growth in its area picked up to 0.4% in Q1 2026 (from 0.2%), with the U.S. and U.K. accelerating while several countries still contracted. Housing & Investors: As immigration caps reshape demand, investors are leaning back into townhomes—including a 536-unit Edmonton portfolio where townhomes are now being treated more like an institutional product. Energy & Trade: Canada’s oil is positioned to play a “key role” in U.S. trade talks, even as markets digest conflicting signals tied to the Middle East. Culture & Media: Corus launched Vivéo, a new French-language streaming service in Canada via Prime. Tech & Aging: TELUS opened a national search for technology partners for its Aging in Place push. Security: A Canadian man was arrested in the KimWolf botnet case tied to DDoS-for-hire activity. Politics: Alberta’s separation referendum question is driving fresh pro-Canada campaigns as the vote approaches.

Consumer Watch: Canadian retail sales rose 0.9% in March and are up for a fourth month, but the lift is largely gas-station spending as fuel prices climb. Capital Markets: The TSX edged higher while the loonie slipped to about 72.36 US cents; oil also moved up. Energy & Tech: B.C. fusion startup General Fusion is weighing a dual TSX-Nasdaq listing as it pushes toward commercialization milestones. Legal & Competition: A new U.S. class action revives a hard-drive component price-fixing fight, targeting suspension assembly makers; Canada already certified a similar case. Politics & Business Climate: Alberta’s independence referendum is set for Oct. 19, and PM Mark Carney says Ottawa will keep working with Alberta on energy and pipelines. Privacy: ExpressVPN joins the backlash against Canada’s Bill C-22, warning it threatens encryption. Deals: Stoneshield Capital will buy a 15% stake in Exolum from OMERS.

Alberta Secession Drama: Premier Danielle Smith says Alberta will hold an Oct. 19 referendum on whether to stay in Canada or start the constitutional process for a binding separation vote—after a court blocked an earlier petition over Indigenous consultation. Media & Streaming Fight: The CRTC’s move to raise Canadian-content funding from U.S. streamers is drawing fresh pushback from the Motion Picture Association, warning it “undermines” the market system. Tech & Telecom: Truecaller is launching travel eSIM service in 29 countries, including Canada, aiming to offset softer ad revenue. Health & Biotech: The FDA approved FoundationOne CDx as a companion diagnostic for TEPMETKO in MET exon 14-skipping NSCLC, while Agenus and 858 Therapeutics shared early ASCO-bound oncology data. Energy Watch: New research points to a natural hydrogen source beneath Ontario’s Canadian Shield, while Alberta’s referendum and Ottawa’s “energy crisis” messaging keep the policy spotlight on oil and power.

Steel Settlement: Two Canadian steel firms and a part-owner agreed to pay US$19M to the U.S. DOJ after allegations they misrepresented steel shipments to dodge U.S. duties. Health Access: Canadians can now get digital prescriptions for generic semaglutide via Hims & Hers, with pricing starting at $149/month for eligible patients. Energy Push: Alberta swore in an updated cabinet, naming Jason Nixon finance minister and Adriana LaGrange hospital minister, while Kelowna MP Stephen Fuhr backs an east-west grid push as Canada plans to double the power grid by 2050. Legal Clash: The Supreme Court of Canada will hear B.C.’s appeal tied to the Mineral Tenure Act and whether DRIPA effectively enters law through courts. Trade & Supply Chain: Heavy-duty truck dealers warn they may not be able to import new models next year unless Ottawa fixes a U.S. emissions-certification paperwork mismatch. Business Moves: OpenTable is expanding with a new Toronto office.

Sports Betting Backlash: New Angus Reid polling finds Canadians are lukewarm on legalized single-event sports betting (34% support, 31% oppose, 35% unsure) and far more opposed to ads—three-quarters want limits during broadcasts, and a majority would ban them outright. Public Safety & Justice: Saskatchewan is rolling out province-wide human-trafficking investigative training for police and frontline officers, backed by Paul Brandt’s #NotInMyCity initiative. Telecom Expansion: SaskTel says it has activated 160+ new 5G sites, pushing total coverage to about 900 sites and targeting 2027 rural and northern upgrades after investing $500M+. AI Infrastructure Push: HIVE shares jumped after it said it bought $58M of Toronto land for an industrial-scale AI data centre. Local Community Wins: HaltonHillsToday’s reader match drive raised $3,750 for Halton Women’s Place.