AGP Executive Report

Defence Finance Push: Canada is aiming to co-announce about 10 founding nations for a new global Defence, Security and Resilience Bank at next week’s NATO summit in Turkey, targeting up to £100B in “cheap finance,” though final commitments could still derail the list. Mental Health for First Responders: Infrastructure Ontario and Runnymede Healthcare Centre have issued an RFQ for Canada’s first dedicated post-traumatic stress injury treatment centres, including a Toronto hub and a 40-bed Caledon facility, with RFPs expected later this year. Trade Shockwaves: The U.S. says it won’t renew USMCA in its current form, raising uncertainty for Canadian exporters and supply chains as talks shift toward new terms. Cloud Security Gap: A survey finds most Canadian and North American firms lack dedicated cloud security teams, with only a small share meeting top maturity standards. Energy & Data Centres: Pembina and partners have moved toward a $4.6B power station near Edmonton to supply a data centre customer. Markets: Canada’s S&P/TSX rose in late-morning trading as tech strength helped offset mixed U.S. markets. Corporate Moves: Faraday Copper will acquire BHP’s San Manuel copper project in Arizona in a deal valued around $525M.

USMCA Shock: The White House says it won’t renew the USMCA “in its current form,” setting up a new phase of annual reviews and fresh uncertainty for Canadian exporters and auto supply chains. Currency Watch: The Canadian dollar is sliding on the growing risk premium tied to USMCA non-extension talk. Trade Talks Ahead: Canada’s trade minister says CUSMA remains in force while negotiations continue, but businesses are bracing for more volatility. AI Financial Risk: Economists and central bankers warn the AI boom could amplify leverage and debt, raising systemic instability and job-loss risks. Energy Efficiency Push: Dozens of countries, including Canada, backed energy efficiency as a cornerstone policy to cut costs and improve resilience. Markets & Tech: Canada’s TSX keeps a strong run as investors chase AI-linked winners, while Robinhood expands its crypto-and-tokenized-asset push with a new chain-native platform. Defence & Industry: INKAS plans major North American manufacturing expansion, and Ottawa’s defence strategy continues to reshape procurement and production priorities.

USMCA/CUSMA Talks: The U.S., Canada and Mexico have started negotiations to renew their trade pact, with the CUSMA review deadline passing without a deal and the process likely dragging on—raising uncertainty for North American manufacturers and supply chains. Trade Pressure & Tariffs: Reporting highlights Trump’s push for more U.S. manufacturing content in autos and other sectors, while Canada and Mexico signal they want to keep negotiating rather than trigger a hard break. Interprovincial Friction: Saskatchewan businesses say interprovincial trade barriers are still sticking around despite federal promises to cut red tape. Monetary Policy & AI: Central bankers, including Canada’s, are debating how AI could disrupt financial stability and lending—while Warsh’s push to scale back forward guidance gains traction. Business & Finance Moves: Zenith Bank is backing Canada-Africa business talks in Nigeria; Grey expands in Ghana and Kenya with local-currency deposits; and First Mining gets federal environmental assessment approval for its Springpole gold project. Canada Day Context: A severe thunderstorm watch hit Airdrie as celebrations continued.

Competition & Food Prices: The Competition Bureau has launched a broad review of Canada’s food supply chain, from farm inputs to grocery shelves, to see whether weak competition is helping keep grocery bills high. Auto Insurance Shake-Up (Ontario): New Ontario rules starting July 1 make nine types of accident benefits optional, giving drivers more choice but potentially shifting more risk onto policyholders. Trade Uncertainty (CUSMA/USMCA): The U.S. is expected to formally not extend USMCA on July 1, triggering a long review and raising stakes for Canada-U.S. negotiations. Health & Pharma: Apotex won Health Canada approval for SEVMIA, a generic equivalent of Wegovy for chronic weight management. Biotech M&A: Zymeworks agreed to buy U.S. Theravance Biopharma for $929 million, aiming to expand its licensed asset portfolio. Markets & Funding: Foreign investors bought a record $27.7B of Canadian federal bonds in April, supporting lower borrowing costs as Ottawa plans major spending. Defence & Arctic Tech: Dominion Dynamics raised $100M to scale its Arctic-focused CCA and AuraNet command-and-control platform. Local Business Safety (Kelowna): Kelowna businesses say downtown crime is forcing costly security upgrades as the city expands RCMP liaison and safety measures.

USMCA Watch: Prime Minister Mark Carney says he expects a “constructive exchange” as Canada, the U.S. and Mexico prepare for a July 1 USMCA review call, with Washington set to miss the renewal deadline and trigger a longer, rolling renegotiation process. Federal Procurement & Space: Canada announced a $688M contract for MDA Space to build and launch a RADARSAT Constellation Mission replenishment satellite, aimed at keeping Earth-observation coverage for Arctic security and emergency response. Defence Industrial Expansion: Toronto-based armoured vehicle maker INKAS plans to nearly double production footprint with tens of millions in new facilities in Canada and the U.S., responding to law-enforcement and defence demand. Markets & Macro: Statistics Canada reported real GDP rose 0.5% in April after a technical recession, easing recession talk though economists say it may not move the Bank of Canada on rates. Energy Efficiency Push: The IEA Global Conference in Montreal wrapped with countries endorsing a Montreal Action Plan to double energy-efficiency progress by 2030. Agriculture Inputs: Urea prices fell sharply as the Strait of Hormuz reopened and China returned to exports, with analysts expecting further declines before seasonal demand returns. Tech & Trust: A report flags growing pressure for transparency in AI companion apps as disclosure and labelling rules move toward compliance. Retail & Travel Perks: Aeroplan and Club Avolta expanded airport retail earning across North America, while Canada Day holiday hours in Steinbach highlight how travel and retail schedules shift for shoppers.

Canadian Defence Procurement: Ottawa’s submarine race is nearing a decision, with Defence Minister David McGuinty warning against splitting the multibillion-dollar contract between South Korean and German bidders—he says it would raise costs and complicate maintenance. Immigration & Politics: Alberta is pushing referendum questions that would expand provincial control over immigration and restrict some services for non-permanent residents, arguing it will ease pressure on housing and public systems. Federal Labour Rules: Bill C-31 would ban non-compete clauses for most workers in federally regulated workplaces, tightening limits on post-employment restrictions in banking, telecom and transportation. Markets & Listings: Questerre’s Series 2 preferred shares begin trading on Euronext Growth Oslo, giving investors tradeable exposure to its Quebec natural gas assets; Cboe Canada also welcomes GuideAI Health Corp. to trade under GDAI. Business & Tech: Quebecor is integrating Vividata audience intelligence into its out-of-home ad platform; LoginRadius launched Directory Sync to automate B2B user onboarding and instant access revocation. Energy & Geopolitics: Oil markets stay jumpy as Iran-U.S. tensions and Strait of Hormuz uncertainty keep shipping and fuel prices fragile.

NHL Trade: The Montreal Canadiens traded veteran winger Brendan Gallagher to the Vancouver Canucks for future considerations, with Montreal retaining 50% of his $6.5M cap hit (about $4M base salary). Venture Capital: RBCx says Canada’s venture capital crunch is squeezing early-stage startups, with 40% fewer founders raising money in Q1 2026 and total early-stage funding down 40% year over year. AI Financing: Vancouver’s Light AI closed a $5M secured convertible debenture unit financing to fund working capital plus ISO audit completion and Health Canada registration. Robotics Expansion: MBody AI says its service-robot operations are expanding across North America, adding Canada as it scales its Orchestrator platform. Hydrogen Push: Quebec-based Vema Hydrogen begins natural hydrogen test drilling, aiming to assess geological hydrogen reservoirs. Retail Growth: Loblaws opened its fifth City Market location in Vancouver’s South Granville, adding prepared foods, fresh departments, and PC Optimum deals. Health Funding: Ottawa’s Health Research Foundation launched a 2026 Health System Solutions grant call focused on applied research to improve access to innovative medicines and health system performance. Crypto Watch: Bitcoin ETFs are set for their worst month in the U.S. as outflows accelerate.

World Cup Business & Diplomacy: FIFA President Gianni Infantino is logging heavy travel across Canada, the U.S. and Mexico as the tournament expands to 48 teams, with Canada’s knockout win over South Africa boosting local watch-party economies. Trade & Policy: President Ferdinand Marcos will visit Canada July 1–4 to meet PM Mark Carney on defense, energy and critical minerals, and to push Canada–ASEAN free-trade talks. Markets: RBC lifted its 12-month S&P 500 target to 8,150, citing stronger earnings confidence and AI-driven momentum. Energy & Infrastructure: Canada and Nova Scotia pre-qualify offshore wind bidders ahead of formal site tenders later this year. Health & Biotech: Health Canada approved Bavarian Nordic’s VIMKUNYA chikungunya vaccine for ages 12+, expanding travel protection. Corporate Canada: Manitoba ag-tech Bushel Plus rebrands as BranValt as it prepares for international expansion. Aviation & Tech: FAA issued Boeing airworthiness directives for 5G radio-altimeter interference affecting aircraft operating in Canadian airspace. Personal Finance: A reminder for Canadians moving to the U.S. not to rush currency conversions after relocating.

Housing & Politics: Pierre Poilievre is pushing Parliament to investigate Ottawa’s plan to help finance the purchase of 2,200 unsold B.C. condos, calling it a “condo bailout” for developers and investors, while PM Mark Carney says it’s meant to support Canadians needing housing. Auto Trade: China’s Geely/Lotus EVs are set to arrive in Canada in July under the Carney–Xi tariff deal, with an annual limit of 49,000 units at reduced tariffs; other Chinese brands like BYD and Chery are also lining up shipments. World Cup Business: Canada opens the knockout stage Sunday against South Africa in a Round of 32 match in Los Angeles, with Canada listed as the favorite to advance; the game is also driving major betting and prediction-market promotions. Circular Economy: WM Canada and Circular Materials officially opened a $150M Cambridge, Ont. recycling facility processing up to 160,000 tonnes annually, using AI optical sorters and robotics. Finance Careers: Mutual Trust Bank named AKM Tareq deputy managing director and head of branch banking division. AI & Energy: A new study argues “agrivoltaics” could help meet AI-driven electricity demand without sacrificing most farmland—potentially powering Canada’s grid using under 1% of agricultural land. Security/Defence Finance: Germany’s defence industry group urges Berlin to join a proposed NATO Defence, Security and Resilience Bank, with headquarters planned in Canada and Luxembourg.

CPTPP Expansion: The UAE has begun preliminary talks to join the CPTPP, alongside the Philippines and Indonesia, with accession negotiations set to follow—an effort to deepen trade access for member economies including Canada. Canada–China Auto Trade: China’s Geely says Lotus EVs will ship to Canada next month under the Carney–Xi deal that allows up to 49,000 Chinese EVs annually at a reduced tariff, while other brands like Chery and BYD work through approvals. Housing & Developers: B.C. and Ottawa are defending a plan to buy up to 2,200 unsold B.C. condo units from private developers at discounted prices for rent-to-own housing, pushing back on claims it’s a developer bailout. Student Pipeline Pressure: Canada’s tightening study-permit and visa rules are blamed for falling Indian student numbers, as Germany, Ireland and the UAE court applicants. CRA Service Delays: The CRA ombudsman has opened an investigation into long waits for complex T1 tax adjustments, citing potential Taxpayer Bill of Rights impacts. World Cup Business Angle: Canada’s Round of 32 match vs. South Africa is also a reminder of how major tournaments can swing spending—fans’ match-day spending can boost food and beverage demand, even if only temporarily.

Canada–China Auto Trade: Geely’s Lotus EVs are set to arrive in Canada next month, with the first shipments landing in Montreal in July under a Carney–Xi deal that also supports up to 49,000 Chinese EVs annually at reduced tariffs. Energy Transition Watch: Nova Scotia’s offshore regulator has cleared five companies (and two groups) to bid on Canada’s first offshore wind farms, with seabed licence bids expected later this year. Clean Energy Jobs at Risk: Alberta’s Varme Energy says 1,000 construction jobs and about 100 operating roles are threatened after a federal–provincial carbon price deal cut the expected value of its emissions-reduction credits. Indigenous Clean Power: HOPA Ports and the Mississaugas of the Credit are partnering to restart the former BIOX biodiesel plant in Ontario via Biidaaban Renewable Energy. Fraud Crackdown: Peel police charged a Brampton man with a $1.4M Ponzi-style scheme targeting elderly investors, alleging guaranteed returns funded with new money. Substance Use Costs: A new Canadian report links substance use to 12% of hospitalizations (nearly 300,000 in 2024) and $16.4B in health-care costs. Housing Affordability: Commentary warns affordability can’t improve without stopping home values from rising, arguing policy is now unintentionally tied to keeping prices high enough to sustain construction. World Cup Business Angle: South Africa’s Round of 32 match vs Canada in Los Angeles is also drawing attention from crypto sponsor Kraken, now an official FIFA crypto exchange supporter.

Canada-Philippines Trade Push: President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. visits Canada July 1-4, with talks expected to accelerate a Canada-Philippines free trade agreement and a Canada-ASEAN FTA, alongside defence, energy and critical minerals cooperation. NATO Ally Ties: Türkiye and Canada vowed to lift relations to a strategic level ahead of the NATO summit in Ankara, with ministers pointing to trade, energy, defence and a possible Türkiye-Canada free trade agreement. Rare Disease Access Alarm: A new report argues Canada’s “rare disease promise” is failing in practice, citing Health Canada approval of a Friedreich ataxia drug while patients still can’t access it. Asylum Policy Borrowing: The UK is moving toward “Canada-style” asylum sponsorship routes, aiming for capped, legal pathways while tightening how asylum and modern slavery rules are applied. Aviation Safety Pressure: IATA’s Africa leadership says taxes and policy bottlenecks are threatening airline viability and calls for stronger government action on safety. Canada-China Exports Goal: Canada’s embassy says it’s targeting a 50% jump in exports to China by 2030. Business & Fraud: Peel police arrested a Brampton man in a $1.4M Ponzi-style scheme targeting elderly investors. Corporate Labour Deal: Rogers Sugar extended its Taber refinery collective agreement to March 2032. Markets & Money: Canada’s TFSA data update highlights how savings vary by age, while investors keep watching CUSMA uncertainty and rate messaging.

Trade & Diplomacy: PM Mark Carney will host Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. in Vancouver July 1–4, with talks aimed at accelerating free-trade negotiations and deepening cooperation on defence, energy, critical minerals, tourism and food security. Energy & Inflation: Canada’s inflation is being driven by energy costs, with gasoline leading the latest spike even as core measures stay steadier—keeping the Bank of Canada cautious. Mining & Critical Minerals: Energy Minister Tim Hodgson announced up to $73M for 12 projects to speed critical-minerals development and connect supply chains to global markets. Defence Procurement: Canada’s defence minister says Ottawa is “interested in learning more” about GCAP’s next-gen fighter after meetings in Tokyo, as Ottawa weighs fighter options. Public Safety & Justice: New federal bail and sentencing rules (Bill C-14) received royal assent, directing harsher penalties for violent and repeat offenders and for crimes affecting first responders, transit workers, organized retail theft and essential infrastructure. Air Travel: The CBSA is rolling out a faster “free flow” process for international-to-international transit at Canadian airports. Corporate Canada: Co-operators was named a top sustainability leader in Corporate Knights’ Best 50 ranking, while Air Canada added a new premium lounge in Québec City. Finance & Housing: Polar Asset Management is moving into mortgage securitization as lending gaps grow, and Public Storage is expanding in Canada via a $1.2B acquisition.

AI & Small Business: A new Intuit QuickBooks report says 77% of U.S. small and midsize firms use AI regularly, but privacy worries, fear of mistakes, and limited know-how still hold many back. Energy Storage & Industry: Moment Energy opened Megafactory 1 in Canada, pitching it as the world’s largest EV battery repurposing site to turn retired packs into grid-scale storage for data centres and other critical users. Payments & Venture Capital: Airwallex raised $320M in a Series H at an $11B valuation, adding AI-focused finance automation and a digital wallet as it expands. Immigration Planning: Federal and provincial immigration ministers met to shape Canada’s 2027–2029 levels plan, aiming to balance labour needs with tighter population targets. Corporate/Capital Markets: Quebecor moved to block Corus’s proposed debt-for-equity restructuring at the CRTC, arguing it would weaken Canada’s media sector. Markets/Regulation: Canada’s Supreme Court won’t hear an appeal by a West Vancouver businessman facing US$29M in B.C. stock-fraud penalties. Public Safety & Trade: Canada signed a public-safety cooperation MOU with Qatar to boost police-to-police collaboration. Business & Labour: Metro issued an update amid an ongoing strike at its Laval produce distribution centre.

AI for Transit: Spare was selected for Canada’s AI Compute Access Fund to modernize public transit with AI routing and fleet optimization, backing growth of sovereign AI infrastructure. Food Safety & Fraud: The CFIA says it stopped more than 150,000 kg of misrepresented food from being sold in Canada after targeted testing across products like fish, honey, maple syrup and meat. Banking Accountability: FCAC hit RBC with a $4.25M administrative penalty over credit-card credit-transfer errors affecting 227,947 accounts, with refunds and a charitable donation for unidentified customers. Markets & Policy: Prime Minister Mark Carney says Canada will work with the U.S. and Mexico to “modernize” CUSMA ahead of the July 1 renewal/review deadline. Payments & Fintech: Adyen was chosen to power payments for Aritzia’s 140 boutiques and its new app. Business Regulation: Toronto bylaw officers issued nearly 100 charges to businesses over FIFA World Cup branding violations. Energy Storage: e-STORAGE will supply a 95 MW/426 MWh battery project in Florida, targeting early 2028 operations. Work & Compliance: CIRO’s inaugural CEO Andrew Kriegler will retire; the board has started a search for his successor. Retail Expansion: Loblaws opens its fifth Vancouver City Market location in South Granville with prepared foods, self-serve options and PC Optimum deals.

Canada-Africa trade push: Prime Minister Mark Carney opened the 6th Canada-Africa Business Conference in Lagos, with Nigeria highlighted as a major growth partner (bilateral trade topping $3B in 2025) and talks focused on finance, infrastructure, energy, critical minerals, agriculture and clean tech. World Cup business ripple: Canada’s Group B exit to Switzerland sets up a U.S. knockout trip, shifting travel demand and logistics for Canadian and host-city tourism operators. AI and data sovereignty: Montreal network-AI startup Unryo says it lets operators run agentic AI inside their own environment, avoiding vendor-controlled data copying. Carbon removal investment: SMBC invested in Deep Sky to back Japan’s CDR/DAC market development, aiming to expand DAC credit sourcing and commercialization. Capital markets & deals: A Canadian court approved a US$2.2B consolidation of two Guyana gold projects by TSX-listed G Mining Ventures and G2 Goldfields, with a July close expected. Tech funding: Sherbrooke/Waterloo quantum spin-off Qubic raised $2.5M seed funding for cryogenic amplifier tech. Energy and climate pressure: LNG Canada faces renewed emissions concerns after advocacy groups released imaging tied to flaring and pollution. Housing/primary care pressure points: A new op-ed argues paying doctors more won’t fix Canada’s primary care crisis, while another piece flags worsening access to regular family doctors and nurse practitioners.