AGP Executive Report

Canada-U.S. Trade Deadline: Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc and U.S. Trade Rep Jamieson Greer are set to meet Sunday as Ottawa races to avert Trump’s Aug. 19 threat of 50% tariffs on about $28B of Canadian goods, with negotiators still pressing for relief on sectoral levies tied to autos, steel, aluminum and lumber while Canada asks provinces to lift U.S. alcohol restrictions. Housing & Infrastructure: Ottawa and Ontario are putting $1B into a new Non-Development Charge Municipalities Stream to help municipalities build and renew roads, bridges and water systems so more homes can be delivered. Wildfire Response & Aerospace Jobs: Canada conditionally sold 10 retired RCAF Hercules aircraft to B.C.-based Coulson Aviation to convert them into aerial firefighting tankers, aiming to boost emergency capacity and support the domestic aerospace sector. Markets & Rates: Global bond yields climbed to levels last seen in 2008, with investors pricing faster tightening in Canada and other major economies, adding pressure to refinancing costs. Agriculture Relief: Canada and Manitoba enhanced AgriStability for producers hit by June-July flooding, including waiving late-filing penalties for impacted areas. Business & Tech: Kanto launched the Obi3G2 turntable less than a year after the Obi3, adding more setup controls and a sensor-driven drive system. Local Business Spotlight: A Whitehorse housing shortage story highlights how northern communities struggle to attract workers without enough homes.

Canada-U.S. Trade Talks: Ottawa says negotiations are “going quite well” and Washington also wants a deal before Aug. 19, as the U.S. threatens 50% tariffs on about $20B of Canadian exports. Auto Sector Pressure: Brampton’s mayor warns “no deal is better than a bad deal” unless autos are included, after Unifor said Stellantis is considering idling/relocating Brampton Jeep Compass production. Air Travel Demand: Air Canada expects record September and October revenue as premium travellers shift away from summer crowds. Cannabis M&A: Curaleaf has launched an unsolicited $272M bid for Aurora Cannabis, reigniting consolidation talk and raising the question of whether Canopy Growth could be next. Corporate Governance/Finance: A ByWard Market District Authority executive director was terminated after seven months, highlighting local governance shakeups. Security & Crime: A commentary piece argues Canada is tackling organized crime the wrong way, pointing to how illicit tobacco smuggling operates like a supply chain. Housing Signals: Saskatchewan leads Canada in building permit growth, a potential early read-through for construction activity. Climate & Wildfires: B.C. wildfire coverage continues, with emergency measures and adaptation funding in focus. Immigration/Travel Friction: Reports say some Houston-to-Montreal passengers with valid passports were denied boarding amid stricter entry/exit requirements.

Canada-U.S. Tariff Race: Ottawa and Washington are nearing a deal to avert Trump’s looming 50% tariffs on about $20B of Canadian exports, with talks focused on possible Canadian concessions plus U.S. moves on steel/aluminum and Section 338 tariffs. Air Travel Demand: Air Canada expects record September and October revenue as premium travellers shift away from summer crowds. Mining & Enforcement: RCMP’s Project NoCargo recovered nearly 400 stolen vehicles worth about $28M, targeting fraud-financed cars destined for overseas export. Tech for Markets: OreLens, a junior mining trading scanner/dilution tracker, says sign-ups jumped 700% in 10 days as traders move beyond old multi-tab workflows. Housing & Construction Signals: Saskatchewan led Canada in building-permit growth, up 101.6% month-over-month from May to June. Energy/Industry Watch: A coalition is pushing for an independent review of Glencore’s proposed Fording River coal mine expansion in B.C.’s Elk Valley. Biotech Investment: Nova Scotia is funding the Verschuren Centre to expand precision fermentation capacity, aiming to add 100 skilled jobs.

Canada-U.S. Trade Tensions: As the Aug. 19 tariff deadline nears, Canada and the U.S. keep negotiating, with sources warning the gap remains wide and that Canada may need to remove retaliatory measures to avoid new levies. Global Trade Scrutiny: The White House’s “Great Transshipment Scam” flags China-linked supply chains and names Canada among economies at risk of being used to route goods around U.S. tariffs; Singapore also says firms must accurately declare the true country/region of origin. Auto Industry: Unifor says Stellantis is considering closing or selling its Brampton, Ont. plant, blaming U.S. trade tariffs. Transit & Manufacturing: Hyundai Rotem won an order for eight more light rail cars for Edmonton, citing cold-weather performance. Energy & Markets: Canada’s TSX shows resilience amid geopolitical risk, while investors watch oil and dividend plays. Household Pressure: A Fraser Institute study says the average Canadian family spent 42% of income on taxes in 2025. Labour & Travel Disruption: Another airline strike risk is highlighted by coverage of how work stoppages can shut down Canada’s air system. Wildlife Update: Six more belugas were moved from Marineland to U.S. aquariums, leaving just 11 whales at the closed Canadian park.

Canada-U.S. Tariffs: U.S. Trade Rep Jamieson Greer says Ottawa must drop retaliatory measures to avoid fresh White House tariffs hitting next week, as businesses keep “watchful waiting” instead of front-loading shipments. B.C. Cabinet Shuffle: After Finance Minister Brenda Bailey’s early-stage, treatable cancer diagnosis, Josie Osborne moves to finance, Ravi Kahlon to health, and Adrian Dix covers jobs temporarily. Middle East Sanctions: Canada sanctions five Iranian officials tied to the Strait of Hormuz blockade, freezing assets and banning dealings. Health & Pharma Access: A drug approved by Health Canada for IgA nephropathy won’t reach Canadian pharmacies because Novartis says reimbursement odds are limited. Investor & Consumer Risk: BBB reports investment and crypto fraud is Canada’s riskiest scam type. Regulation Watch: CIRO sanctions Scotia Securities Inc. over reporting and complaint-handling control failures. Energy Outlook: The IEA warns of a global oil supply deficit in Q3 as Hormuz disruptions and other shipping and production constraints persist. Trade Pressure on Industry: U.S. wine and beer leaders say tariffs are driving losses and retaliation, with Canadian alcohol bans cited as a major hit.

Energy & Investment: Arrow Exploration buys its first producing asset outside Colombia, paying C$12.15M (about US$8.9M) for a 100% interest in Alberta’s Thorsby oil property, with output around 550 boe/d and plans for 22 Sparky formation drilling locations. Nuclear Supply Chain: China approved eight new reactors, boosting its push toward 110 GW by 2030 and potentially tightening demand for uranium and related fuel-cycle services. Trade & Tariffs: The U.S. accuses 40+ countries, including Canada, of enabling China’s “shadow transshipment” to dodge tariffs, while Canada’s trade negotiators face pressure ahead of the Aug. 19 deadline. Finance & Payments: RBC and BMO are set to sell Moneris for about C$2B, raising questions about data sovereignty and payments control. M&A/Markets: Newmont’s proposed US$10B acquisition of Goldcorp would reshape Canada’s gold landscape. Health & Consumer: Frankie’s Organic vegan cheddar puffs recalled in the U.S. over undeclared milk allergens; Pfizer/Valneva Lyme vaccine review moves forward with EMA validation. Policy & Labour: Saskatchewan says unemployment in the Swift Current–Moose Jaw region rose to 5.7% in July but remains below provincial and national rates. Community & Business: Winnipeg’s Little Brick Market expands again, nearly tripling retail space after demand “eclipsed” early projections.

Ontario Social Assistance Overhaul: Ontario is changing Ontario Works rules so people without legal immigration status in Canada can’t receive benefits, after a tribunal case involving an expired work permit. Water Security Planning: Alberta says it will commission a 100-year study on long-term water supply to support population, farming and industry growth. Data Centre Policy: Ontario unveiled a data-centre framework that would make new facilities pay all electricity costs, face higher rates than other industrial users, and get no cash incentives—while municipalities push for clearer rules. Canada-U.S. Tariff Talks: Negotiations are intensifying ahead of Aug. 19, when Trump’s proposed 50% tariffs could hit broad Canadian exports; both sides want a deal before the deadline. Tech & Deals: L40° advised Chilean AI firm Elipse.ai on its acquisition by Canadian holding company Runtime Enterprises, marking Runtime’s first Latin America investment. Housing & Costs: B.C. home sales fell about 7% in July, with prices also down, while a Fraser Institute study says the average family paid over $50,000 in taxes in 2025. Business Growth Signals: EQ Bank is running a Loblaw-linked PC Optimum points contest, and Always Best Care Senior Services returned to Inc. 5000’s fastest-growing list.

Sanctions & Foreign Policy: Ukraine’s sanctions commissioner says Canada is leading on both the number and “quality” of sanctions decisions, with more expected as negotiations continue. Trade & Jobs Risk: A report warns that if CUSMA breaks down, Canada could lose more than 100,000 jobs, with manufacturing hit hardest and spillovers into services. Payments & Sovereignty: EU officials push alternatives to US card rails, arguing foreign payment dependence is a geopolitical risk—an issue that resonates with Canada’s own payments-data sovereignty debate. Energy & Infrastructure: LS Electric says its Canadian Standards Association-accredited testing lab status lets it run CSA-certified power equipment tests in-house, aiming to speed market entry as North America’s grid and AI data-centre buildout accelerates. Public Health: Canada’s paediatric surveillance data links e-scooters and e-bikes to 10 child deaths in 2025 and 57 severe injuries needing prolonged care. Business Climate: Insolvencies in Canada jumped more than 11% in June, adding pressure as small-business confidence hits a three-year low. Capital Markets: Iconic Gold voluntarily delists from the TSX Venture Exchange, while Air Canada’s Aeroplan stake sale lifts shares and signals ongoing loyalty-program monetization.

Air Canada & Aeroplan Deal: Air Canada shares jumped after it sold a 25% stake in Aeroplan for $2.5 billion, a move tied to its latest quarterly results and fuel-cost pressures. Payments & Data Sovereignty: RBC and BMO agreed to sell Moneris to U.S. private equity Francisco Partners for about $2B, raising alarms from payments leaders about Canadian control of financial data and infrastructure. Trade Tensions: Canada and the U.S. aren’t ready for a tariff deal, with Ottawa unsatisfied with Washington’s latest offer as Trump’s Aug. 19 threats loom; CFIB warns exporters could be hit hard. Energy & Climate Resilience: Ottawa announced $34.2M for 141 climate adaptation projects in 128 communities, including heat-risk funding in Waterloo. Defence & Drones: The military is accelerating drone adoption with industry through RED COBALT, a showcase linking Canadian firms with defence needs. Business & Consumer Pressure: A grocery-price comparison app highlights how the same Ontario list can cost $50–$100 more depending on where you shop. Corporate Canada: Scotia Global Asset Management says securityholders approved fund mergers and objective changes. Tech & Industry: Field Materials launched AI agents for construction back-office workflows like invoices and procurement. Food Safety: Frankie’s Organic Foods recalled vegan cheddar puffs over undeclared milk.

Air Canada Finance: Air Canada posted a quarterly net loss of C$178M as fuel costs jumped 49% year over year, even as it moves to strengthen its balance sheet by selling a 25% stake in Aeroplan for C$2.5B to Blackstone and a pension-fund group. Payments & Deals: Francisco Partners is buying Moneris from RBC and BMO for about C$1.4B, underscoring how Canadian payments assets are drawing U.S. private equity interest. Corporate Governance: Elliott Investment Management is pushing for board changes at Northern Star Resources, naming major mining executives it wants added to the board. Defence & Industry: TKMS raised its 2026 outlook on higher demand for frigates and sonar tech, while Canada’s defence ecosystem continues to expand with new quantum and satellite-related initiatives. Trade & Diplomacy: Canada is aiming to conclude a free trade deal with ASEAN this year as it seeks deeper Southeast Asia ties and more market diversification. Public Policy & Risk: A UK defence think-tank released a toolkit for tackling rapidly escalating authorised payment fraud, reflecting growing pressure on regulators and financial institutions. Local Impact: B.C. declared a provincial state of emergency after a wildfire forced Summerland evacuations.

CUSMA Shock: A new Oxford Economics report for the Canadian American Business Council warns Canada could lose about 102,000 jobs if the Canada-U.S.-Mexico agreement collapses, as the U.S. prepares 50% tariffs on a range of Canadian goods starting Aug. 19. Tariff Pressure on Culture: Inuit artists are urging a scramble for new markets as the same 50% tariff list could hit paintings, prints, sculptures and certain materials used in Inuit art. Air Travel Disruption: Air Canada has pushed back its Toronto–Dubai restart to 2027, extending the pause tied to the Iran conflict. Labour Watch: Manitoba posted strong July job growth (+5,900) with unemployment at 5%, while Moose Jaw-area unemployment rose year over year, raising youth employment concerns. Pension Power: OMERS reported a 4.8% net return ($6.9B) in the first half of 2026 and says it plans to add at least $10B in new Canadian investments over five years. Food & Manufacturing: Gay Lea Foods will invest $200M to expand its Toronto cottage cheese capacity, and CN closed the 2025-26 crop year with a record 33.8M tonnes of grain moved. Local Business & Infrastructure: Sarnia received federal, provincial and city funding to modernize transit, and Calgary restored water service in Bowness after a main break and sinkhole.

Payments Deal: Francisco Partners is buying Canadian payments processor Moneris from RBC and BMO for about C$1.44bn (cash), with Moneris serving 325,000 commerce points—an exit that signals continued private-equity appetite for Canadian fintech. Pipeline Costs: Trans Mountain has agreed to cut shipping fees for long-term shippers by about 10% under a settlement that still needs regulator approval, deepening the public subsidy debate around the $34.4bn project. AI Infrastructure Finance: Lambda is selling a $917m leveraged loan to fund Nvidia GPU infrastructure, showing debt markets are increasingly being used to bankroll Canada-linked AI buildouts. Cyber Expansion: BlueVision and Fluency Security are partnering to embed behavioural analytics into BlueVision’s Fusion Cloud across South Africa, the UAE and Canada, aiming for faster identity-driven threat detection. Energy & Markets: Keel Infrastructure shut down all U.S. bitcoin mining to pivot power toward AI/HPC data centres, while Canada’s broader investment chatter continues to track rate and risk shifts. Lab Services: Merck is expanding its Singapore biosafety testing lab to boost contract testing capacity across Asia-Pacific.

Retail Expansion: Jollibee is set to nearly double its Canadian footprint over five years, securing franchise commitments for 26 new restaurants—16 in British Columbia and 10 in Edmonton—taking it from 28 locations to a planned 54. Climate & Health Funding: Environment and Climate Change Canada says Secretary of State (Nature) Nathalie Provost will outline funding under the Climate Change and Health Capacity Building Program during a visit to La Dauphine. Provincial Fiscal Update: British Columbia’s deficit for 2025/26 fell to $7.7B, $3.3B below forecast, helped by higher revenues and lower capital spending tied to project scheduling changes. Housing Pressure: A report highlights how rent is consuming nearly all working hours for minimum-wage earners, intensifying affordability strain. Industrial Real Estate: Metro Vancouver’s industrial demand stays tight as Grosvenor Property Canada signs a 10-year lease with Doka Canada for a major Annacis Island site. Labour Mobility: LMIA processing times rose across most Temporary Foreign Worker streams, while the permanent resident stream saw a notable improvement. AI & Security: Info-Tech Research Group warns AI-assisted development is outpacing traditional application security and urges “intelligent” security planning across the software lifecycle. Wildfire Impacts: B.C. wildfire smoke continues to push multiple cities onto Canada’s most polluted air-quality list. Corporate Moves: Marsh McLennan Agency agrees to acquire Accel Holdings, expanding its insurance and advisory reach.

Retail Leadership: Mountain Warehouse names a new CEO as founder Neale steps down, with turnover topping £500M and profit up, signaling a push for international growth. AI Skills Gap: A Pearson/AWS report warns Canada’s “AI readiness gap” is hurting employers’ ability to find graduates who can apply AI in real workplaces. Labour Market: Canada’s July jobs gain looks strong overall, but the Prairies are driving most of the momentum—Prairie employment growth is far faster than the rest of the country. Tax Policy: A new intergenerational fairness debate is expanding to family taxation, arguing retirees get advantages working couples don’t. Climate & Risk: Human-caused climate change is linked to a sharp rise in Canada’s extreme wildfire conditions, while wildfires across western US and Canada force evacuations. Energy & Nuclear: Opinion pieces argue Ottawa should support nuclear without picking winners, as Canada’s new nuclear strategy faces scrutiny over reactor preferences. Trade & Aviation: Canada and Nigeria expand their air deal for direct flights, aiming to boost tourism and business ties. Music Copyright: Sony and Universal sue Canadian streaming app Musi for routing users to YouTube audio without licenses. Food Retail Expansion: Jollibee plans 16 new restaurants in British Columbia under a multi-unit franchise deal, adding to its growing Canadian footprint.

Wildfire & Emergency Response: British Columbia declared a state of emergency as a fast-moving wildfire forced nearly 22,000 people to evacuate, with thousands more on alert and officials warning conditions are “explosive.” Pipeline & Indigenous Opposition: The Union of B.C. Indian Chiefs urged Ottawa and Alberta to halt progress on the West Coast pipeline, arguing inadequate consultation and warning expanded oil activity will worsen climate risks and disasters. Alberta Secession Vote: Alberta is set to vote Oct. 19 on whether to begin the legal process toward separation, with the referendum question framed around staying in Canada versus triggering a binding provincial vote later. U.S. Tariffs Pressure on Canada’s Economy: With Trump’s 50% tariff threat looming, Canada is scrambling on trade talks—especially around dairy and alcohol—after concerns that added U.S. dairy protein imports could drive milk dumping and costly payouts. Labour Market Snapshot: Saskatchewan reported the third-lowest unemployment rate in Canada at 6%, adding about 2,600 jobs, while the broader national picture continues to hinge on hiring momentum. Health & Public Policy: A PHAC report says over 80% of Canadian parents skipped COVID-19 vaccination for their kids in the past year, citing “not necessary” and safety concerns as top reasons.

Wildfire Emergency: B.C. declared a state of emergency after the fast-moving Bald Range wildfire forced more than 20,000 people to flee around Okanagan Lake, with Summerland and Peachland among the hardest hit and officials warning conditions could worsen quickly. Trade Tensions: Prime Minister Mark Carney is reportedly offering the U.S. trade team concessions to avoid looming 50% tariffs on Aug. 19, including a possible repeal of a U.S.-autos tariff, as Canada pushes for a broader deal rather than product-by-product bargaining. LNG Interest: Pacific Energy says Middle East buyers are asking about securing LNG from Canada as a hedge against geopolitical chokepoints, even as Woodfibre LNG capacity is already contracted. Jobs & Economy Signals: Manitoba reported strong July job growth and the lowest unemployment rate in Canada at 5%, while broader coverage points to Canada’s labour market holding up amid global uncertainty. Defence Tech: Canada launched a Quantum Defence Innovation Secure Hub in Calgary, aiming to move quantum research into secure communications for defence and critical infrastructure. Crypto Regulation: G7 regulators unveiled a coordinated crackdown on DeFi lending, pushing stricter licensing plus KYC/AML expectations and rattling markets.