AGP Executive Report

India Trade: Foreign Minister Anita Anand’s visit comes as Canada sends nearly 300 business delegates to India, its largest trade mission there in 30 years. Both countries are pushing to conclude a comprehensive trade pact by year-end, with energy, critical minerals and aerospace in focus. Quebec Business Climate: Premier-elect Paul St-Pierre Plamondon’s pledge to hold a sovereignty referendum by 2030, alongside proposed immigration cuts, is raising concerns about investment and labour supply. Auto Market: China’s Geely plans to begin selling vehicles in Canada in 2027, opening the door to a major new competitor. Jobs: September’s 68,000-job decline lifted unemployment to 6.5%, renewing questions about the economy and interest rates. Energy: Oilsands tailings fluid grew 50% from 2014 to 2024, intensifying pressure to address wastewater as Alberta seeks to expand production. Banking: CIBC-owned Simplii is rolling out a new account and testing app-based money folders to attract customers who prefer managing their finances themselves.

Steel Industry: Stelco is pushing back against Ottawa’s threat of legal action over hundreds of planned layoffs, calling the allegations false as U.S. tariffs and market pressures weigh on Canadian producers. Trade Diversification: Canada is sending nearly 300 business delegates to India, its largest trade mission there in 30 years, as the two countries accelerate talks on a trade pact. Labour Market: Canada shed 68,000 jobs in September and unemployment rose to 6.5%, cooling expectations of a Bank of Canada rate hike. Auto Market: China’s Geely plans to begin selling vehicles in Canada in 2027, though it has yet to name models. Import Rules: Ottawa is considering tougher forced-labour safeguards that could require importers to prove goods are free of exploitation.

Auto Market: Geely says it will begin selling vehicles in Canada in 2027 and is building a local retail and service network, though it has not named models or prices. Space Industry: Canada Rocket Company has raised $22.5 million, opened an Etobicoke manufacturing site and begun work on an Ontario engine-testing facility. The startup aims to reach orbit by 2032. Jobs: Canada lost 68,000 jobs in September as unemployment rose to 6.5%, a sharp setback for the labour market. Trade: Nearly 300 Canadian business delegates are heading to India on the country’s largest trade mission there in 30 years, as both sides look to strengthen economic ties. Steel Tensions: Cleveland-Cliffs’ CEO says the company is prepared to take Canada to court over Stelco layoffs, adding to trade friction affecting the steel sector.

Steel Showdown: Cleveland-Cliffs’ CEO says he is ready to fight Ottawa in court over planned Stelco layoffs, while the federal government maintains the company must honour its employment commitments. Trade Tensions: A U.S. ban on nearly $1 billion in Canadian imports, including alcohol, dairy and motorcycles, takes effect, adding strain to the bilateral trade dispute. Airport Investment: Vancouver International Airport could lead Ottawa’s privatization plan, with First Nations investors potentially taking a 20% stake. Jobs and Rates: Canada lost 68,000 jobs in September and unemployment rose to 6.5%, cooling expectations of Bank of Canada rate hikes as the loonie weakened. India Trade: Nearly 300 Canadian business delegates are set to visit India on the country’s largest trade mission there in 30 years, as both governments look to deepen commercial ties. Data Centre Debate: CSIS warns that expanding data centres bring cyber and supply-chain risks; a separate poll found 64% of Canadians favour limits on new facilities.

Energy Investment: Shell will buy a 30% stake in Equinor’s Bay du Nord offshore project, strengthening plans to reach a final investment decision in early 2027. Jobs and Rates: Canada lost 68,300 jobs in September and unemployment rose to 6.5%, wiping out this year’s job gains; the weak report eased expectations of higher interest rates and helped lift the TSX. Trade Mission: Nearly 300 Canadian business delegates, led by Trade Minister Maninder Sidhu, are heading to India as both countries push to advance trade talks and deepen commercial ties. Workforce Shift: The Bank of Canada says lower immigration and an aging population are reshaping the economy, with implications for the workforce, consumer demand and growth. Tariff Risks: Saskatchewan food processors say tariffs have not yet hit core business, but uncertainty is clouding plans; one Yorkton oat producer sends about 85% of its finished products to the U.S.

Jobs and Markets: Canada shed 68,000 jobs in September and unemployment rose to 6.5%, extending a run of weak labour data. The TSX rebounded more than 500 points as traders pared back rate-hike bets, while the Canadian dollar hit an 18-month low. Trade Diversification: Nearly 300 Canadian business delegates head to India Oct. 12–17 on the country’s largest trade mission there in more than 30 years. Ottawa is targeting $70-billion in two-way trade by 2030 and aims to conclude a broader trade pact by year-end. Auto Competition: China’s Geely plans to enter Canada in 2027, though it has yet to name models. Its arrival could bring a new mass-market EV competitor. Tariffs and Prices: A study of Canada’s 2025 retaliatory tariffs found they added just 0.3 percentage points to consumer inflation; prices on affected imports rose modestly, while domestic alternatives held steady. Mining Investment: Saskatchewan and several other provinces are pressing Ottawa to expand exploration tax credits to cover engineering and feasibility work, arguing the support could help junior miners advance critical-mineral projects.

Jobs and Markets: Canada lost 68,300 jobs in September, pushing unemployment to 6.5% after a second straight monthly decline. The weak report cooled expectations of a Bank of Canada rate hike; the TSX then surged more than 500 points. Weston Deal: The family behind Loblaw and Shoppers Drug Mart agreed to buy Britain’s Boots for $8.9 billion, adding more than 1,800 stores to its retail empire. Trade and Industry: Trade talks with the U.S. remain stalled, leaving Canadian exporters exposed to tariffs. Stelco layoffs have renewed calls for Ottawa to consider taking over the Hamilton steelmaker, though nationalization is only a proposal raised by a legal expert. Business Investment: Ottawa is promoting a new Productivity Mega Deduction that would let companies immediately write off a wider range of investments, including equipment and technology. Auto Market: China’s Geely plans to begin selling vehicles in Canada in 2027, bringing a new mass-market EV competitor to the country.

Jobs & Rates: Canada lost 68,000 jobs in September, the second monthly decline, lifting unemployment to 6.5% and cooling expectations for Bank of Canada rate hikes. Markets: The TSX climbed 519 points to 35,664.62 on Friday as investors weighed the weak labour report and bond yields. Auto Industry: China’s Geely plans to enter Canada in 2027, with a retail and service network in the works but no models announced yet. Saskatchewan Investment: Ottawa is directing more than $11.2 million to eight projects to expand production, improve productivity and open export markets. Energy Outlook: RBC sees the potential for more than $200 billion in oil and gas construction through 2040, while the proposed Pacific Link pipeline has cleared a major federal hurdle; industry respondents expect projects to proceed but are less certain about timing. Corporate Strategy: Montreal-based MTY Group may sell weaker-performing brands as it reviews its portfolio and shifts toward franchising.

Jobs and Growth: Statistics Canada is due to release September employment figures today; economists expect 9,200 jobs added and unemployment edging up to 6.5%. Deloitte raised its 2026 growth forecast but cut its 2027 outlook to 1.6%, citing tariff risks and weaker momentum. Costs and Energy: Higher diesel prices could push up food costs as Canada shifts to imported produce for winter. In Quebec, Hydro-Québec wants data centres using more than five megawatts to pay an average 13 cents per kilowatt-hour—about double the current large-customer rate. Major Deals and Projects: The Weston family’s $8.9-billion purchase of U.K. pharmacy chain Boots marks a major Canadian-led overseas deal. Construction has also begun on LNG Canada’s second phase, following an investment decision, advancing a major export project. Corporate Restructuring: Corus completed a recapitalization that exchanges about $500 million in debt for lenders’ control of a new company holding its TV and radio assets.

Major Projects: MPs are set to hold the first vote on Bill C-39, which would extend Ottawa’s one-year review approach to more major projects; the Liberals are expected to advance it for committee study. Steel Jobs: Stelco layoffs have begun, with up to 500 workers affected. Cleveland-Cliffs’ CEO says they could be recalled if Canada and the U.S. reach a steel trade deal. Energy Investment: Construction has started on LNG Canada’s Phase 2, an expansion expected to double production and bring up to 4,000 construction jobs at peak. Trade: Canada’s August trade surplus widened to US$2.9 billion as Ottawa looks to grow business beyond the U.S. Global Deal: The Weston family agreed to buy British pharmacy chain Boots for £6.7 billion, one of the largest recent overseas acquisitions by a Canadian firm. Markets: Energy stocks lifted the TSX 0.3% Thursday. Business Legacy: Stephen Jarislowsky, who built Jarislowsky Fraser into a major Canadian investment manager and supported university research, has died at 101.

Trade: Canada’s August trade surplus widened to C$4.2 billion, its sixth straight monthly surplus, as exports to the U.S. jumped 8.1% and imports fell. Ottawa is also seeking to diversify export markets. Major Deal: The Weston family’s Wittington Investments agreed to buy U.K. pharmacy chain Boots for about US$8.9 billion, a major international expansion for the Canadian retail dynasty. Steel Jobs: Industry Minister Mélanie Joly gave Stelco’s U.S. owner five days to outline how it will meet job commitments, warning Ottawa may enforce the terms of the takeover approval. Energy and Minerals: Shell approved the next phase of LNG Canada, which is expected to double exports, while LG Energy Solution secured a long-term supply of lithium concentrate from Quebec’s North American Lithium mine. Utilities: Emera and Canadian Utilities plan to combine in a deal valued at about C$72 billion, creating a major Canadian utility group.

Markets: The S&P/TSX fell 608 points Wednesday, dragged down by basic-materials stocks, as U.S. markets also declined. Major Deals: The Weston family’s Wittington Investments and Fairfax Financial agreed to buy U.K. pharmacy chain Boots for US$8.9 billion; Galen Weston will chair the business, with closing expected in 2027. Separately, Emera and Canadian Utilities plan to combine in a $72-billion merger, creating a utility serving about six million customers. Small Business: CFIB says just 7% of small firms plan significant growth or diversification in the next year. Among businesses standing still, 59% cite taxes as a barrier to expansion. Trade Pressures: Ottawa warned Stelco’s U.S. owner it must meet job commitments despite tariff pressures, while packaging maker Supremex plans to cut 60 jobs after estimating tariffs will reduce annual operating earnings by $10 million to $12 million.

Defence & Procurement: BDC is expanding partnerships to help Canadian defence and dual-use firms test tech, navigate procurement and scale, including a new Vimy Forge accelerator cohort launching in winter 2027. Trade & Consumer Impact: A renewed Canada–U.S. trade war is reshaping how Canadians expect prices, product availability and supply chains to change, with tariffs, bans and counter-tariffs driving uncertainty. Energy & Markets: Shell says its refining margins could jump to $42 a barrel, setting up a strong products quarter as diesel and fuel prices surge. Housing & Real Estate: A Re/Max survey finds 65% of Canadians will compromise to buy a home that better fits their needs, including relocating or choosing older properties, as sales slow. Nuclear Research: Polytechnique Montréal is marking the 50th anniversary of its Slowpoke reactor and pushing to revive nuclear studies in Quebec. Regulation & Health Tech: ClaroNav Kolahi says its Navient surgical navigation system has received EU MDR certification, supporting continued EU sales. Immigration Politics: Prime Minister Mark Carney signals Ottawa may resume a “controlled increase” in population after two years of cuts, drawing immediate pushback from Conservatives.

Trade & Tariffs: Statistics Canada says exports to the U.S. jumped 8.1% in August as firms “front-ran” looming 50% tariffs, widening Canada’s trade surplus with the U.S. to $11.2B from $6.1B. Provincial Policy: Manitoba proposes removing limitation periods for civil claims tied to intimate partner violence and “coercive control,” aiming to let survivors sue regardless of when abuse occurred. Corporate Earnings & Dividends: Goodfellow reported Q3 net earnings of $2.3M and declared an eligible $0.10/share dividend payable Nov. 3. Retail & Delivery: Instacart and Skip expanded in Canada, letting users shop groceries and restaurants across each other’s apps. Markets: The S&P/TSX rose Tuesday on tech strength; the Canadian dollar traded around 70.29 US cents. Tech & Logistics: Clearly Technologies is now available via Geotab’s marketplace to help fleets turn scattered vehicle data into cost savings. Immigration: IRCC is moving asylum claims to a new online process starting Nov. 3, with different steps depending on where a claim is in the system. Housing & Finance: BlackRock survey finds confidence in retirement planning drops as Canadians near retirement. Education & Integrity: Ontario referred OSAP-payment concerns at private career colleges to the OPP after inspections and KPMG review. Business & Society: Canadians are tipping less, with hospitality workers reporting declines in tips.

Quebec Politics: The Parti Québécois narrowly won Quebec’s election, taking 59 seats and setting up a minority government—an immediate test for PM Mark Carney’s push for national unity as separatist momentum rises. Labour & Economy: A proposed change to Canada’s labour law would let the federal government order an end to strikes or lockouts in federally regulated industries when the national interest is at stake, reigniting a fight over workers’ rights and Parliament’s oversight. Housing & Growth: A BDC study says major projects could add $670B in investment from 2026-2030, lifting GDP by 4.1% by 2030 and involving about 280,000 Canadian SMEs—while housing advocates argue Canada needs faster, more coordinated state-building powers to tackle the crisis. Markets & Rates: Bond-market pressure is back in focus, with commentary warning it could force the Bank of Canada to hike again. Energy & Trade: Canada’s project and energy pipeline plans keep colliding with U.S. tariff uncertainty, while separate coverage highlights how climate litigation could reshape who pays for fossil-fuel-driven warming. Business & Consumer Finance: New reporting finds many Canadians still lack detailed retirement and estate planning, and that renters may need a different retirement strategy built around liquidity and flexibility. Innovation & Funding: NRC IRAP support is backing a Canadian biotech push to expand a vascular leak therapy beyond intravenous delivery.

Energy & Trade: Adnoc signed a multi-year LNG deal to supply about 2 million tonnes to Thailand starting in 2027, as the Iran war disrupts Gulf shipments and tightens global LNG flows. Monetary Policy: KPMG says bond markets are demanding more “credibility,” raising the risk the Bank of Canada may need to hike rates this year. Air Travel: Air Canada will cancel several long-haul routes for 2027, including services to Delhi, Mumbai, Dubai, Singapore and Algiers. Markets: Canada’s S&P/TSX edged up Monday while U.S. stocks rose, with the Canadian dollar holding around 70.16 U.S. cents. Housing & Infrastructure: Ottawa announced a $1B Food-Link Fund to strengthen food terminals and regional food hubs. Energy Infrastructure: Pacific Link was designated a Project of National Interest, clearing a streamlined federal review with first oil not expected until around 2032. Corporate Moves: Air Canada completed an $800M share buyback, while PesoRama launched a C$25M bought deal offering to fund expansion in Mexico. Agriculture: AAFC confirmed the Seed Increase Unit will split operations between Indian Head and Saskatoon in 2027 before fully transitioning in 2028.